“Are current models able to support decision making under deep uncertainty?”


Slide shows workshop on model-based decision making under deep uncertainty


Program NMDC workshop
Detlef van Vuuren

Using model-based scenarios to deal with uncertainties

Warren Walker

Decision making under deep uncertainty, theoretical background

Jos van Alphen

Policy making under uncertainty

Erik Verroen

Advising policy makers on mobility policies

Ming Chen

Early warnings, arising uncertainties to be taken into account

Bart van den Hurk

The evolving complexity of climate models

Neeltje Kielen

Delta programme on Fresh Water

Daniëlle Snellen

Multi-dimensional future scenarios to help policy makers inland use and transportembrace uncertainty

Gigi van Rhee

Adaptive policy making

Christian Bos

Experiences from oil/gas E&P and energy transition modelling


Date        : December 3rd, 2018
Time        : 09:30 – 17:00 hrs.
Location : Paviljoen Deltares Delft

The objective of this workshop is twofold:

  • To present and exchange experiences on model-based methods and their models for coping with deep uncertainties in long-term planning and policy development for water management, transport and traffic, and pollution and air quality and
  • To discuss the use and potential improvements and linkages of these concepts and methods for planning and policy making in these policy domains.


09:30 – 10:00 Registration and coffee
10:00 -12:00 Plenary session

  • Decision making under deep uncertainty; theoretical background;  Warren Walker (TUD)
  • Policy making under uncertainty;  Jos van Alphen (Office of the Delta Commissioner)
  • Using models in dealing with uncertainties;  Detlef van Vuuren (UUUniversiteit Utrecht/PBLPlanbureau voor de Leefomgeving)
  • Advising policy makers on mobility policies; Erik Verroen (RWS)
  • Panel discussion on major questions and challenges; facilitated by Gert-Jan de Maagd (Min  IenW)
12:00 – 14:00 Market & Lunch

On a lively market place people are invited to present their concepts and methods, demonstrate their tools and present their case studies; combined with a lunch buffet

  • Experiences Rijkswaterstaat in embracing uncertainties and adaptive transport policy making; John Spruijt en Benno van der Griendt (KNMIKoninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut)
  • Dealing with disruptions; Ming Chen (TNO)
  • KNMI’21; Rike van Hattem (KNMI)
  • Modelling impact of climate on agro-food; Saeed Moghayer (WURWageningen University &Research)
  • Rapid flood protection screening model for World Bank investments under deep uncertainty: development and application in Beira, MozambiqueErik van Berchum en Hidde van de Broek (TU Delft)
  • The Pathway Generator; Andrew Warren(Deltares)
14:00 – 15:30 Working sessions

Using models for climate change adaptation policies

  • Climate Adaptation; Marjolijn Haasnoot (Deltares), Bart van de Hurk (KNMI), Neeltje Kielen (RWS)

Climate adaptation policies need to rely on information about the future state of the climate and socio-economic configuration of the area of interest. In many practices this information is directly or indirectly derived from model projections: IPCC endorsed climate projections, regional downscaling models, hydrological impact models, physical schematisations of infrastructure etc.
A relevant topic in this area is the so-called “complexity match”: does the use of (chains of) highly complex models and large ensemble sizes match the requested level of information needed for the climate adaptation policy preparation?
In this workshop first a keynote will be given by Bart van den Hurk on the historical evolution of climate models and their evolving complexity. Also a discussion on the interaction between climate models and climate services will be given, focusing on the “complexity match”.
Subsequently, Neeltje Kielen will reflect on the use and evolvement of water models in the Netherlands that are used to support decision making on long-term strategies for fresh water supply. She will discuss trade-offs between increasing the resolution of the models (in space, process and time), the runtime, and the wish to explore multiple uncertainties.
Finally a group discussion will be organised highlighting the modelling needs for climate adaptation policy making. The discussion will be led by Marjolijn Haasnoot.

How to embrace uncertainties in transport policy making?

  • Ming Chen (TNO), Daniëlle Snellen (PBL) and Gigi van Rhee (Stratelligence)

Debating on how to embrace uncertainties to facilitate and improve policy making based on 3 presentations:

  1. Early warnings (Ming Chen): which uncertainties are arising an should we take into account?
  2.  Using scenarios (Daniëlle Snellen):  how to handle combinations of uncertainties and working with scenarios?
  3.  Adaptive policy making (Gigi van Rhee): optimizing policy making using scenarios to benefit from uncertainty

Energy transition
(details follow later)

  • Saeed Moghayer (WEcR), Christian Bols (TNO), Joost van Stralen (ECN)
15:30 – 16:15 Wrap – up session

  • Focus: Concepts and methods used, Accuracy and credibility of models, Communication

         Form: Panel discussion lead by facilitator (Gert-Jan de Maagd)

16:15 – 17:00 Drinks